Christian Whiton是川普第一任期的美國前國務院顧問，他寫出來的東西基本上可以視為川普，或至少是川普執政團隊對於台灣的想法。

一級嘴砲技術士 on Facebook粉專的一些摘錄，用字充滿立場但主體上是正確的，沒時間看原文的話可以搭配閱讀。

"...Taiwan ranks near the top of the list. Its government has created a strong case study for how not to handle the post-globalist United States."

一開頭就說，台灣在對美關係的處理上是反面教材

"Lai’s itinerary included stops in Dallas and New York as part of a “transit visit” on his way to one of the dwindling number of countries in Latin America with which Taiwan has formal diplomatic relations."

講到賴清德過境紐約被拒絕的事情還硬要臭XD

"Some in Taipei have said that Lai was advised by friends with ties to Trump not to attempt the call. That in itself is a problem: such advisors gave bad advice, perhaps because they lacked real access to Trump. Lai should have had the judgment to let Trump himself decide whether or not to take a congratulatory call."

"This action struck some of those in Washington who follow Taiwan as remarkably different than the seeming joy Taiwanese officials expressed over the inauguration of Joe Biden as president four years earlier."

台灣政府對川普和對拜登就任的態度溫差太大。

"Sadly, Taiwanese diplomats professed themselves to be well positioned during the Biden administration, despite a lack of much evidence."

"Like all Taiwanese representatives in Washington since the United States terminated formal relations in 1979, Hsiao was impeded by her inability to function as a real ambassador would. But that was not the only problem: she is easily recognizable as part of the clique that hates Trump and all of his policies."

對台灣的外交人員專業程度的批判很嚴厲，並特別指出蕭美琴，直言她不具備大使的能力和功能，而且她過度偏左的立場會被歸類在厭惡川普的那群黨派中。

"'The war in Ukraine has made it clear ... for democracies to stand shoulder to shoulder against authoritarian aggression.' This probably seemed politically safe at the time, but was a pointless risk to anyone who understood Trump’s political base, much of which viewed Biden’s intervention as an expensive and risky extension of the globalist project."

川普不吃台灣有事美國有事這一套，事實上在川普眼中，美國對中台關係的干預是"an expensive and risky extension of the globalist project"

並且對於有在關注對外政策的美國人而言，大多數對台灣的想法是"Far from being seen as an asset in the struggle with China, most Americans who follow foreign policy see Taiwan as a liability"

是拖累而不是資產，也不認為台灣具有美國應該盡力捍衛的親密關係。

An unsourced claim about Hsiao by Taiwan’s president’s office saying she was “…named in international media as one of Washington, DC’s most influential ambassadors” is plainly ludicrous.

再一次強調蕭美琴在美國的地位並非如台灣國內宣稱的那般有影響力，完全是荒謬的。

也指出賴清德先前高調公開接待Damon Wilson的行徑令人匪夷所思，這個人是美國政府的訴訟對象，而且對川普非常不友善，把川普比為希特勒、史達林和墨索里尼。想要和川普打好關係的話，怎麼會高調接待這樣的人物？

"While DPP officials blame grassroots activists for starting the recall effort, it was advocated and managed in part by Lin Yu-chang, the party’s since-resigned secretary general, and Ker Chien-Ming, the party’s legislative caucus whip."

"The failure underscores a perception that Lai and his DPP are in trouble with the electorate and unable to address basic voter concerns, hoping instead that sounding hawkish on China and the opposition KMT’s dubious business ties to China and soft-on-Beijing reputation will sustain the DPP."

全篇提到罷免的部分，但重點放在DPP無法凝聚支持者、對選民在意的議題欠缺最基本的論述，卻轉將希望寄託在鷹派身上。

"Taiwan failed to attract virtually any of the capital fleeing from Hong Kong after Beijing effectively ended the rule of law there in 2020; Singapore has been the primary beneficiary."

經濟活動上的限制造就了外資投資的困境，無法吃下在2020年後從香港外流的資金，最後反而是新加坡受惠。

"However, gas imports will not rectify this situation substantially: what Trump officials see is a DPP-led government beholden to lefty cultural issues like denuclearization and transgenderism, indifferent to U.S. business, unserious about defense, and unwilling to close a trade deficit."

總結起來就是：廢核和跨性別等議題上偏左、對與美貿易消極、國防上不用心，且無意解決貿易赤字。

加上先前對於形勢判斷錯誤，未能及時與新政府建立友好關係，頭鐵站錯隊還高調接待川普的敵人，並且即便意識到與美國的關係有問題，卻選擇使用了錯誤的方式、諮詢錯誤的對象，每個月花6萬美元請鬼抓藥單。

加起來基本上是面子裡子都得罪光了（。

我大概就是⋯⋯ 這種狀況

所以先前一直在傳關稅和大罷免有關，美國因為台灣太親中而課予高關稅，其實算是錯誤連結。

大罷免有一點點影響，但微乎其微，比較具體展現的地方在於讓川普看出賴清德政府對於民生議題的掌握度低，且無法凝聚民心，只能走鷹派攻擊的方式來維持政權穩定。

至於什麼台灣太親中影響國防和第一島鏈的，川普擺明了dot car，台灣有事他完全是傾向不出手干預的。川普是很純的商人，大部分事情是利益導向，在利益面前一個蕞爾小國民不民主他壓根不在乎。

台灣連在關稅談判上都是被邊緣化的，而且過早地就把唯一的王牌台積電打出去，講白了是連上桌談判的資格都沒有

想用民主自由對抗專制獨裁這種抽象的概念來拴住川普幾乎不可能，台灣打從一開始就站錯立場也選錯策略了。

xyamix: 唉就是咕嚕咕嚕

中間觀點：解讀政治，看懂世界 on Facebook推一下翁履中教授的解析~

其實單就「台灣外交人員打不進川普的核心團隊」這件事，之前看翁教授受訪時提過幾次，但不知道為什麼好像沒什麼相關人士聽進去，明明印象中他好像是極少數能和共和黨講上話的人（？）

「台灣的處境，像是押錯賭注的賭客，還碰上了不講理的莊家 —— 只不過這場賭局，不是金錢輸贏，而是地緣安全與經濟命脈。如果政府不願誠實面對並提出全方位應對策略，企業和個人只會更加自求多福，導致失去國家向心力；更糟的是，那些看似樂觀、實則自欺的官方宣傳，只會讓人對風暴的真實規模毫無準備。台灣既然決定選擇站在美國這邊，就要知道「哪個美國」正在執政，不能還在跟錯的人說話，以為自己很有面子。」
翁教授這段話真的是金玉良言。

路人路過，讓我想到冰島與英國的鱈魚戰爭，面對冰島不斷擴張的領海範圍，英國派出了大批軍艦來護衛自家漁船，最後算盤敲一敲，摸摸鼻子認了
面對商人川普，跟他談什麼民主自由之乎者也根本沒有意義，一旦中國給予的利益大於台灣"能"給予的利益，川普勢必會完全放棄台灣，台灣必須要拿出更多籌碼才行
但現在看起來籌碼好像快沒了0.0

KURURU5100: 認同~川普只要有利益可圖，就算跟北韓他都能合作，民不民主的他根本不在意，而且因為他是老大，遊戲規則他說了算，再不喜歡也還是要摸摸鼻子繼續往來（。

我現在也很困惑台灣還有什麼拿得上檯面的籌碼，光是要加碼4000億美元的投資誰拿得出來都不知道……